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后电商时代的阵痛,与互联网不能承受之轻

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发表于 2019-7-18 11:55:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式



总有一些公司幸运地,有意识或无意识地站在了技术革命的浪尖之上,也总有一些人在行业的风口以我们意想不到的方式一夜暴富。
我们知道罗振宇一个人做起了跨年演讲《时间的朋友》,却未必知道微商大佬方雨也搞了个人年会号称“社交新零售年会”。我们知道内容创业诞生了像papi酱和咪蒙这样的超级网红,但未必知道发了百万微信红包一下入手深圳两套房的龚文祥或许才是自媒体首富。至少,在自媒体炫富界他应该是排行第一。
微商门徒的热情丝毫不亚于TFBOYS的粉丝。这应该是张小龙始料未及的,以微信群、微信朋友圈为主阵地的微商成为了后电商时代的一匹不知道什么颜色的马。即便微信官方的动作是打压,就像假货之于淘宝一样,但结果必然暧昧不清,毕竟有时候这不是平台所能左右的。
流水过亿、月入十万确实存在,但还有很多人血本无归一败涂地,这就是幸存者偏差。某些“微商”已经被定义为传销,而那些朋友圈晒胸、晒面膜、晒车,动不动就组团去泰国、新加坡、马来西亚的人其实更多也是表演。
实际上,在正常的商业规则下运转的微商本无可厚非。尽管这个词已经被污名化,但这个行业看起来依然蓬勃。微商精于拿捏人性但又限于人性,后电商时代的浪潮中,微商只是一朵浪花,是焦虑和物欲的缩影。对平台来说,则必须建立起健康的运转机制,用更重的模式,给出消费升级的解药。



不同于淘宝,微信很大程度上并不掌握包括微商在内的庞大交易数据。此前大家以为腾讯要靠微店来整合数据。在小程序突进之后,我们发现小程序电商才是腾讯奇袭淘宝的武器。
经过长达一年的用户沉淀,电商小程序的变现能力开始凸显。11月初,即速应用的数据显示,电商小程序的流量环比呈现高速增长的趋势最高时期达89%,而电商类小程序的月流水环比增长在8月份的时候到了62%,甚至有接近10%的电商商家将小程序当作核心的营收来源。
小程序把微信的社交体系、公众号内容体系、支付交易体系串联在一起,越来越多的内容创业者、商家包括微商都已经做了或正在着手小程序。看起来,小程序精简了传统电商的购买流程,是从轻的打法,但其背后的社交和交易数据并不是轻资产。
而不同数据维度下有着不同的明枪暗斗。6月份,顺丰和菜鸟互撕,争的是物流数据,双方你来我往,摩肩擦踵,大战了好几回合。战火蔓延,也烧到了其他行业。最后国家邮政局出面调停,事情算是告一段落。
这场大战下没有胜利者,未来在物流领域,对物流云端数据的争夺,只会更加激烈,只不过大多数民营快递企业话语权已经开始式微。


一两年前,市面上诸多电商创业项目仍然层出不穷,其中大多数不久后就阵亡退出了历史舞台。电商成为巨头的游戏,但线上流量红利早就消退,随着电商不断发展以及网购的渗透率进一步提高,市场规模虽然继续增长,但增速放缓了。
电商的中心地带也发生了一定的迁徙,新零售、智慧零售等随之登场。阿里在新零售上双线布局,一方面通过自有项目盒马、银泰等探索新零售改造方法论,一方面通过入股等方式进行零售资源积累,比如224亿入股高鑫。
腾讯系之前以京东为新零售战局主力,42.15亿入股永辉开始走上前台,与阿里形成对垒之势。互联网巨头开拓庞大的线下市场,将传统商超的供应链优势、门店优势和客流量优势运用到现有的网络零售中成为趋同的主题。
不同于以往互联网创业的轻巧创新,本轮新零售浪潮的过去、现在和未来似乎都将由互联网巨头引领。线下零售企业更多是扮演追随者的角色,要么加入两方阵营,要么凭借自己的实力在已有的模式下做一些小规模探索。而初创企业仅在无人零售、生鲜社区店等细分角度有所建树。


如果说新零售是从供给侧做存量改造和增量创新,那么新消费则更多是从需求侧考量,从用户出发的群众路线。
吴晓波认为,制造能力和消费升级之间存在冲突。中国的制造产业长期依赖于成本优势,并形成了“价廉物美”的固有模式。近十年间,中产阶层的消费能力井喷是一个让人措手不及的景象,它对供给侧造成了巨大的错配性压迫,转型升级的效率和代价决定了中国产业变革的未来。
所谓消费升级已经被谈了好几年,怎么升级却并没有明确答案,最近“消费降级”巨头拼多也开始冒头了,西二旗后厂村有程序员月薪3w过着5k的生活。所以,这终究是一个见仁见智的话题,着眼点在于所服务的用户是哪些人,怎么让体验越来越好。
这里又有两个维度:一是以更少的时间将商品送达用户,多快好省的京东是代表,二是帮用户以更少的时间购买到更合适的商品,网易考拉和网易严选是代表,前者主打“精选商品、品质消费和会员制”的线上costco模式,后者则是自营ODM。



根据艾瑞咨询的数据,截至2016年底,网购市场的年交易规模约为4.7万亿元人民币,同比增长23.9%,未来三年,预计该增速将下降至13%-20%之间。与此同时,跨境电商近年来几乎一直以50%以上的增速发展,艾瑞咨询预计未来两至三年也仍将以50%以上的速度增长。由此可见,消费者的品牌偏好正不断转向国际化品牌,这也是消费升级的一大表现,在护肤美妆和母婴品类尤为明显。
跨境电商无疑蕴含着巨大潜力,而全球制造业都在面临着人力成本和能源成本的上升。在2016年底,波士顿咨询发布的《全球制造业成本竞争力新图谱》就曾提出:“那些用过时的成本竞争力理念发展生产能力的企业,很可能在未来二三十年处于劣势;而那些根据全球制造经济转移调整业务的企业,那些灵活应对经济转移的企业,则很可能成为赢家。”
跨境电商如何在制造业革新的变局下建立壁垒?网易考拉给出的答案是不仅精选商品,还要向上游拓展,精选商品的源头。网易考拉推出的全球工厂店,定位为全球优质工厂的品牌孵化器,通过保姆式服务和品牌赋能,实现工厂直达消费者。这样一来,制造工厂只需要专注自己擅长的设计与生产环节,网易考拉负责市场研发、渠道推广等,商品从制造商直达消费者,压缩了中间成本和品牌溢价。
这确实会让人联想起网易考拉的兄弟产品网易严选,不过他们最关键的区别在于“品牌”。网易严选是自有品牌,制造商提供设计和生产。而网易考拉全球工厂店的品牌属于制造商和工厂本身,网易考拉更多是平台属性。这样的模式下,制造商能够一改“代工”身份,建立自己的品牌,在定价权上也有更大的自主权。
实际上,全球电商巨头亚马逊也在向制造企业渗透,其全球开店“制造+”的项目就是代表。相比之下,全球工厂店是孵化海外优质生产商的产品,帮助工厂品牌突破口碑、时间和信任壁垒;“制造+”是为企业提供品牌推广、品牌保护和运营支持,帮助中国制造企业打造自由品牌输出海外。
尽管不少优质工厂依靠丰富的经验仍旧活得不错,但相对来说受制于人,容错率也不高。只有建立自有品牌,将发展方向和发展利润攥紧在自己的手中,才能站着赚钱。网易考拉全球工厂店和亚马逊全球开店“制造+”项目正是切中了这一痛点,让工厂品牌价值最大化。


过去,互联网企业谈“重”色变,生怕自己不够互联网。在电商领域,产品生产、仓储、物流等等,确实是脏活累活,同时需要付出巨大的成本。能够撑过资本的压力和自身的疼痛期才能长成巨头。但也正是这些,构筑起了企业和行业的护城河。
无论是阿里和腾讯在数据开掘和抢摊线下的战争,还是亚马逊全球开店”制造+”和网易考拉的工厂品牌孵化器,都体现出互联网巨头对产业链的渗透,这些都是电商之重。这些重模式必然需要时间去培育与开拓,但也是电商行业经历充分竞争之后的发展必然。
中国经济的底色,是还要经历二十多年的城镇化过程,以及中国还会在相当长时期内保持国际贸易中的“巨国效应”。
随着城镇化深入,居民生活方式会有显著变化,购买的商品和服务质量的要求也会显著提升。基于上述这些,我们甚至能够预测未来电商行业的趋势应该主要有三个方向:品质化,消费趋势向国际化品牌升级,跨境电商维持高于行业平均水平的增速;由轻向重,电商平台对产业链渗透加深。
第三则是个性化的发展趋势继续加强。一些懂产品、有粉丝效应,垂直领域的个人化IP可以依靠自身的经验与资源,去拓展小众品牌市场,依靠强大的粉丝黏性变现。这里面可能更多是小程序里出现不少类似黎贝卡的店、新世相的店,至于龚文祥和方雨们,可能收割完了后又去寸土寸金的地方买房去了。
产业的风口和个人的机遇总是息息相关,其中的轻与重,或许还是米兰昆德拉曾经抛出的问题描述最为贴切,“最沉重的负担同时也成了最强盛的生命力的影像。负担越重,我们的生命越贴近大地,它就越真切实在。 相反,当负担完全缺失,人就变得比空气还轻,就会飘起来…… 那么,到底选择什么?是重还是轻? ”
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